What are the chances me going out with this girl?

what might have happened, is that she probably was interested in you for a while, but you went to slow and did not ask her out as your girlfriend early enough. she probably got tired of waiting, maybe thinking she had been sent to the friend zone, and now wants nothing to do with you. I would advice to cut all ties with her. If she only makes you hurt emotionally, then you do not need her in your life. Even if things get better and you and her become friends, you will always feel pain because you will feel love for her- a love that is not returned. So cut her out of your life, just like she is trying to cut you off hers.